Section: Module 3: Climate change prediction models | Climate Change and Public Health | NextGenU.org

  • m3Instructional Goals covered in this module:
    • Examine models and methodologies used to predict climate change.
    • Module 3: Lesson 1: Climate change predictors

      Student Learning Outcomes:

      Upon completion of this lesson, you will be able to:
      • Describe the characteristics of the indicators used in climate change prediction models.
      • Explain how ground, earth, and space observations are used to monitor climate change data.

      Approximate time required to complete the readings (at 144 words/minute) and assignments for this lesson: 2 hours and 3 minutes.

      Required Learning Resources and Activities
    • Read section 1.3.4 under the heading "Climate Change Indicators" on pages 136-137. (10 minutes)
      IPCC

    • Watch the entire video. (23 minutes)

      University of California, Davis Climate and Global Change group

    • Read and scroll down through the custom map. (6 minutes)
      The Global Climate Observing System

    • Read the content under the heading "Monitoring Weather at the Surface", "Monitoring Weather from Above", and "What Variables Do We Monitor?". (2 minutes)
      Climate.gov

    • Read the entire web page. (8 minutes)
      Climate.gov

    • Read the entire web page. (8 minutes)
      Climate.gov

    • Read the entire web page. (7 minutes)
      Climate.gov

    • Module 3: Lesson 2: Models for climate change prediction

      Student Learning Outcomes:

      Upon completion of this lesson, you will be able to:
      • Indicate the most prevalent models applied to climate change prediction.
      • Explain the importance of climate change prediction models and their significance towards finding long-term solutions.

      Approximate time required to complete the readings (at 144 words/minute) and assignments for this lesson: 3 hours and 42 minutes.

      Required Learning Resources and Activities
    • Read the content under the heading "Future temperature changes", "Future precipitation and storm events", "Future ice, snowpack, and permafrost", "Future sea-level change", and "Future ocean acidification". (15 minutes)
      United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

    • Read the entire web page. (6 minutes)
      Climate.gov

    • Read the content under the heading "9.1 Climate Models and Their Characteristics" on pages 746-753. (53 minutes)
      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    • Watch the entire video. (58 minutes)

      Energy Innovation

    • Module 3: Lesson 3: Limitations of climate change predictors

      Student Learning Outcomes:

      Upon completion of this lesson, you will be able to:
      • Assess the factors that prevent more accurate predictions of climate change.

      Approximate time required to complete the readings (at 144 words/minute) and assignments for this lesson: 11 hours and 53 minutes.

      Required Learning Resources and Activities
    • Read the entire page. (5 minutes)
      Science.org

    • Read the entire page. (25 minutes)
      Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    • In this activity, you will analyze the health benefits and the limitations of working with climate change prediction models.     

      Step 1: Review the following figure from the IPCC's Mitigation for Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers. The proposal is to drastically reduce the CO2 atmospheric concentrations to below 430ppm by 2100. This could/would revert the temperature to below 1.5°C (high confidence). In order to achieve this goal, it would be necessary to immediately start mitigation action and upscale the portfolio of mitigation technologies and development along a low-energy demand trajectory.

      Step 2: Reflect on the following questions: 

      • What limitations could affect the accuracy of these predictions?

      • Which benefits would be attained by following the IPCC’s proposition of reducing CO2 atmospheric concentrations to below 430ppm by 2100? 

      • What are the potential limitations to implementing policies to achieve that objective? 

      Step 3: Prepare a 250 - 500 word piece of writing to summarize your reflections on the IPCC’s proposition.

      Step 4: To share your work, click on the “Reply” button under this post and paste your work in the “message” box. Make sure to reference others’ intellectual property when necessary. All references should follow 7th Edition APA formatting. For further instructions, see the resource on the Himmelfarb Health Sciences Library: APA citation resource (N.B. references are excluded from word counts).

      Step 5: To complete the activity, you will need to reply to at least two posts made by your peers in a respectful and professional manner. Be sure that your post engages your peers' ideas by including a reflection on their comments, sharing ideas of other potential difficulties and parties involved, or asking thought-provoking questions. If a peer comments on your posting, please reply. To post a reply, click “Reply” on a particular discussion, write your feedback and then click on “post to forum.”

      OPTIONAL Step 6: Interact (10 minutes)

      If you would like to, you can reply to your peers' posts in a respectful and professional manner. Ensure that your post engages your peers' ideas by including a reflection on their comments, sharing ideas of other potential difficulties and parties involved, or asking thought-provoking questions. If a peer comments on your posting, please reply. To post a reply, click “Reply” on a particular discussion, write your feedback and then click on “Post to forum.”

    • quiz icon
      Quiz: Module 3

      To access the quiz, click on the name of the quiz provided above. On the following screen, click the "Preview quiz now" button to respond to the questions.

      TO PASS THIS QUIZ, YOU MUST OBTAIN A SCORE OF 16/21 

      Not available unless: The activity Quiz: Module 2 is marked complete